Paper ##11

Articles

ACF Patterns in Seasonal MA-Processes. In O.D. Anderson (ed.), Time Series, North-Holland 1980, 259276.

Statistischer Modellbau mit nicht-experimentellen Daten, Mitteilungsblatt der Ges. f. Statistik und Informatik, 11, 1981, 165181.

Hierarchical Bounds in Seasonal Distributed Lag Models. In O.D. Anderson (ed.), Time Series Analysis, Theory and Practice 1, North-Holland, 1982, 497514.

Two Kinds of Pooling Information in Cross Sectional Regression Models, in W. Grossmann et al. (eds.), Probability and Statistical Inference, Reidel 1982, 297306.

Exploratory Business Cycle Analysis Using Running Medians. Empirica 1982, 4970.

Local Resistance in Distributed Lag Models. Statistische Hefte 23, 1982, 4451.

An Exploratory Program Package for Nonlinear Data-Smoothers. In: H. Caussinus et al. (eds.), Compstat 1982, Part I, Physica Verlag 192, 376381.

Local Resistance in Polynomial Regression and Restricted Least Squares. In: J. Mogyorodi et al. (eds.), Proceedings of the 3rd PSMS in Visegrad Hungary, Akademiai Kiado 1982, 283295.

Local Sensitivity Analysis and Matrix Derivatives. In: G. Feichtinger and P. Kall (eds.), Operation Research in Progress, Reidel 1982, 425443.

Hierarchical Load Curve Models. The Statistician 32, No. 1+2, 1983, 188194.

Sensitivity Analysis in Seasonal Distributed Lag Models. In: O.D. Anderson (ed.), Time Series Analysis, Theory and Practice 4, North-Holland, 1983, 3546.

W. Polasek: Multivariate Time Series Models for Austrian Interest Rates. Empirica 2, 1983, 129157.

W. Polasek: Extreme Bound Analysis for Residential Load Curve Models: Empirical Evidence for a 16-household Example. Empirical Economics 9/3, 1984, 165181.

Multivariate Regression Systems: Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis for Two-Dimensional Data. In: J. Kadane (ed.), Robustness in Bayesian Statistics, North-Holland, 1984, 229309.

W. Polasek: Exploring International Business Cycle Analysis Using Running Medians. Comp. Statistics and Data Analysis 2, 1984, 5170.

W. Polasek: Regression Diagnostics for the General Linear Model. J. of the American Statistical Association 79, 1984, 336340.

W. Polasek: A Dual Approach for Matrix Derivatives. Metrika 32, 1985, 275292.

W. Polasek: Hierarchical Models for Time Series Data. In: J.M. Bernardo et al. (eds.), Bayesian Statistics 2, North-Holland, 1985, 723732.

W. Polasek and R. Kunst: Causality Measures and Non-Stationary Data: A Simulation Study. Computational Statistics Quarterly 1, 3-21, Physica-Verlag, 1988, 421.

W. Polasek and Pötzelberger, K.: Robust Bayesian Analysis for a Parameter Change in Linear Regression. Empirica, Vol. 14, 1989, 123137.

W. Polasek : A Non-Stationary Analysis of Austrian Interest Rates. In: P. Hackl (ed.), Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change, 1989, 407440.

W. Polasek : Vector Distributed Lag Models with Smoothness Priors. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 10, North-Holland, 1990, 133141.

W. Polasek and Pötzelberger, K.: Robust HPD Regions in Bayesian Regression Models. Econometrica, Vol. 59 (6) 1991, 15811590.

 

W. Polasek and Pötzelberger, K.: Robust Bayesian methods in simple ANOVA models. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 40, 1994, 295311.

W. Polasek and Krause A.: The hierarchical Tobit model: a case study in Bayesian computing. OR-Spektrum 16: Springer-Verlag 1994, 145154.

with Schmid, B., Weiner, J., Krause, A., Stoll, P.: Modeling with Discontinuous Relationships in Biology with Censored Regression. The American Naturalist, Vol. 143 (3), March 1994, 494507.

Hartmann, P., Ramseier, A., Gudat, F., Mihatsch, M.J., Polasek, W.: Das Normgewicht des Gehirns beim Erwachsenen in Abhängigkeit von Alter, Geschlecht, Körpergrösse und Gewicht. Pathologie 15: Springer-Verlag 1994, 165170,


W. Polasek and Neudecker, H., Liu, S.: The Hadamard Product and some of its Applications in Statistics. Statistics 26, OPA Amsterdam B.V. 1995, 365373.

 

W. Polasek : "Bayesian Generalized Errors-in-Variables (GEIV) Models for Censored Regressions."  In: Mammitzsch/Schneeweiss (eds.), Symposia Gaussiana, Conf. B, Walter de Gruyter, Berlin, New York 1995, 261279.

W. Polasek and Müller, P.: Gibbs Sampling for ARCH  Models in Finance. In: Kitsos, C.P., and Müller, W.G., (eds.), Proceedings of MODA4, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, 1995.

W. Polasek and Jin, S.: Gibbs sampling in AR models with random walk priors. In: Gaul W. and D. Pfeifer (eds.), From Data to Knowledge, Springer Verlag Heidelberg, 1996, 8693.

 
W. Polasek
and Kozumi, H.: The VAR-VARCH model: A Bayesian approach. In: J.C. Lee, W.O. Johnson and A. Zellner (eds.), Modelling and Prediction Honoring Seymour Geisser, North-Holland 1996, 402422.

W. Polasek, Jin, S., Kozumi, H.: "Bayes'sche Modelle zur Prognose des langfristigen Zinssatzes in Deutschland." In: G. Bol et al. (eds.), Karlsruher Workshop in Finanzmarktökonometrie, Physica Verlag 1996, 319328.

W. Polasek: "Variance Diagnostics for Classical and Bayesian Linear Models." Computational Statistics 11, 1996, 245268.

W. Polasek and Jin, S.: GARCH model with outliers. In: Klar R. and Opitz O. (eds.), Classification and Knowledge Organisation, Springer Verlag 1997, 178186.

W. Polasek: "Sind ökonomische Zeitreihen zufällig oder chaotisch?"  In: P. Onori (Hsg.), Chaos in den Wissenschaften, Verlag Kanton Baselland 1997, 109128.


W. Polasek,
Gelfand, A.E. and Mallick, B.K.: "Broken Biological Size Relationships: A Truncated Semiparametric Approach with Measurement Errors." Journal of the American Statistical Ass. 1997, 92, 836845.

W. Polasek and Liu, Shuangzhe: On Generalized Inverses and Bayesian Analysis in Simple ANOVA Models. Student, Vol. 2, 1997, 159168.

W. Polasek and Ren, L.: Structural breaks and model selection with marginal likelihoods. In: W. Racugno (ed.),.  Proceedings of the Workshop on Model Selection, Pitagora Ed. Bologna 1998, 223273, with discussion.

W. Polasek and Liu, S.: Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the VAR-VARCH model: A new approach. In: U. Leopold-Wildburger, G. Feichtinger and K.-P. Kistner (eds.), ‘Modelling and Decisions in Economics, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg 1999, 99114.

W. Polasek, Liu, S., Neudecker, H.: Heteroskedastic linear regression models. In: Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences Update, Vol. 3,  Kotz S., Read C.B. and D.L. Banks (eds.), John Wiley, NY 1999, 301309.

W. Polasek and Liu, S.: Testing Constraints and Misspecification in VAR-ARCH Models. In: H.A.L. Kiers et al. (eds.), ´Data Analysis, Classification, and Related Methods´, Springer Heidelberg 2000, 261266.

W. Polasek, Banerjee, S., Gelfand, A.E.: Geostatistical modelling for spatial interaction data with application to postal service performance. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 2000, 87105.

W. Polasek: The Bernoullis and the Origin of Probability Theory: Looking back after 300 years. Resonance, Vol. 5, 2000, 26 – 42.

W. Polasek and Kozumi, H.: A Bayesian Semiparametric Analysis of ARCH Models. In: Dockner, E.J. et al. (eds.), Optimization, Dynamics, and Economic Analysis, Springer, Heidelberg, 2000, 389400.

 
W. Polasek and Ren, L.: A Multivariate GARCH-M Model for Exchange Rates in the US, Germany and Japan. In: Decker, R. and Gaul, W. (eds.), Classification and Information Processing at the Turn of the Millennium, Springer, Heidelberg 2000, 355363.

W. Polasek and Ren, L.: Generalized Impulse Response Functions for VAR-GARCH-M Models. In: Gaul, W. et al (eds.), Data Analysis, Springer, Heidelberg, 2000, 299311.

W. Polasek and Ren, L.: Volatility analysis during the Asia-crisis, A multivariate GARCH-M model for Japan, Germany and the US, Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 17, 93-108, 2001.

W. Polasek and Pojarliev, M.: Portfolio construction with Bayesian GARCH forecasts. In: Fleischmann et al. (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2000, Springer Verlag, Heidelberg 2001, 119126.

W. Polasek and Pojarliev, M.: What components determine stock market returns in the 1990's?, in W. Gaul and G. Ritter (eds.) Classification, Automation and New Media, Springer Verlag, 2002, 367-375.

W. Polasek: MCMC Methods for Periodic AR-ARCH Models. Periodic Control Systems 2001 (Psyco 2001); in S. Bittanti and P. Colaneri (eds.) 67-70.  Pergamon Press (Elsevier Europe), 2002.

W. Polasek and Pojarliev, M.: Applying multivariate time series forecasts for active portfolio management. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management 17: 103-116, 2003.

W. Polasek and Pelloni, G.: Macroeconomic Effects of Sectoral Imbalances in United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Germany and France, Computational Economics 21(1): 65-85, 2003.

W. Polasek and Amplatz, Ch.: The Maastricht criteria and the Euro: Has the convergence continued?, Journal of Economic Integration 18, 661-688, 2003.

W. Polasek, B.S. Falch and J. Bitzer: Die Behandlung des prämenstruellen Syndroms (PMS) in Phytotherapie 3, 22-29, 2003.

W. Polasek , Th. Panagiotidis and G. Pelloni: Macroeconomic Effects of Reallocation Shocks:  

A generalised impulse response function analysis for three European countries, Journal of Economic Integration, 18(4), 794-816, 2003.

Multivariate Regression and ANOVA Models with Outliers: A comparative approach. Journal of Statistical Theory and Applications 2(2) 2003, 145-164.

W. Polasek and Pojarliev, M.: Portfolio construction using multivariate time series forecasts, in O. Opitz and M. Schwaiger (eds.) Exploratory Data Analysis in Empirical Research, 514-521, 2003.

W. Polasek and Jose Maria Moreno-Jiminez: E-Cognocracy: Combining E-Democracy with Knowledge Networks, in J. Padget, R. Neira and J.L.Diaz de Leon (eds.) e-Government and e-Democracy. Progress and Challenges, Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Mexico 2003, ISBN 970-36-0152-9, p. 165-175.

Moreno-Jiménez, J. M. and W. Polasek (2003): "E-Democracy and knowledge. A multi-criteria framework for the new democratic area", Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Vol 12, No 2-3, pp 163-176.

W. Polasek and Pai, J. (2004): CPO Plots for ARMA model selection. Central European Journal of Operational Research (CEJOR) 2004, 211-219.

W. Polasek and Pojarliev, M. (2004): Global European portfolio construction: Does a changing volatility structure matter? ASMBI (Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry) 20, 265-280.

W. Polasek , M. Gallegatti and M. Gallegati (2004): Business Cycle Fluctuations in Mediterranean Countries (1960-2000): Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 40 (6), pp.28-47.

W. Polasek and Pojarliev, M. (2004): Volatility Forecasts and Value at Risk Evaluation for the MSCI North America Index. in: D. Baier and K.-D. Wernecke eds. Innovations in Classification, Data Science and Information Systems, Springer Verlag Berlin, 482-489.

W. Polasek and Moreno-Jiménez, J. M. (2005), E-Cognocray and the participation of immigrants of in E-Governance, in M. Böhlen et al. (eds), TED Conference on e-Government (TCGOV-2005), Trauner Verlag, Linz; 18-26.

W. Polasek and H. Berrer, Christian Helmenstein: Stochastic Ranking and the Volatility Croissant – A Sensitivity Analysis of Economic Rankings; in:  Weihs, C. and Gaul, W. (Eds.) (2005): Classification - The Ubiquitous Challenge. Springer Verlag, Heidelberg, 537-544.

W. Polasek and S. Liu (2005) ANOVA Models with Generalized Inverses, in Baier, D., Decker, R., and Schmidt-Thieme, L. (Eds.): Data Analysis and Decision Support. Springer, Heidelberg, 113-121.

W. Polasek and H. Berrer (2005): Regional growth in Central Europe: Long-term effects of population structure. In Zerger, A. and Argent, R.M. (eds) MODSIM 2005 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, pp. 2609-2614. ISBN: 0-9758400-2-9.

W. Polasek, K. Kakamu and H. Wago (2005): Spatial Interaction of Crime Incidents in Japan. In: Zerger, A. and Argent, R.M. (eds) MODSIM 2005 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Dec. 2005, pp. 407-413. ISBN: 0-9758400-2-9.

W. Polasek (2006a) Traffic sensitivity of long-term regional growth forecasts, in: New Regional Economics in Central European Economies: The Future of CENTROPE, Proceedings of OeNB Workshops, Austrian National Bank, March 30 to 31, 2006, 220-243.

W. Polasek and H. Berrer (2006): Traffic sensitivity of long-term regional growth forecasts, in Spiliopoulou et al (ed.) From Data And Information Analysis to Knowledge Engineering, Springer Verlag, 502-509.

B. Felderer, N. Graf, I. Paterson, W. Polasek, W. Schwarzbauer, R. Sellner (2006) "The European Services Market in the Context of the Lisbon Agenda – Productivity and Employment in European Services with High Intensity of Information and Communications Technology (ICT)", in:  "Deeping the Lisbon Agenda," pp. 21-78, published by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour at the start of the Austrian Presidency of the EU in January 2006.

W. Polasek und R. Sellner (2007) Kosten-Nutzen von E-Government: Ergebnisse einer Umfrage in der Schweiz, «eGov Präsenz» 2/07, 54-55.

W. Polasek (2007) Nachruf: Prof. F. Ferschls Wiener Jahre, eine persönliche Sicht. Austrian Journal of Statistics 36(39, 245-246.

W. Polasek (2007) “e-Citizenship:  A concept for the integration of migrants via the Internet”; in Schweighofer, Geist & Heindl (eds.) 10 Jahre IRIS: Bilanz und Ausblick. Iboorberg Verlag, pp .111-115.

M. Bliem, K. Weyerstrass und W. Polasek (2008) „Langfristige Energieszenarien und ihre Auswir­kungen auf Österreich“, Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter, 55(2), 379-406.

J. P. LeSage and W. Polasek (2008) “Incorporating Transportation Network Structure in Spatial Econometric Models of Commodity Flows”, Spatial Economic Analysis (2008) Volume 3, Issue 2, June 2008, 225 - 245.

K. Kakamu, H. Wago and W. Polasek (2008) “Spatial Interaction of Crime Incidents in Japan”, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, Volume 78, (2-3, July 2008), 276-282. 

W. Polasek, W. Schwarzbauer, and R. Sellner (2008) “Zentralbahnhof Wien as an engine for regional growth: Improved accessibility fosters firm growth”; In Manfred Schrenk, Vasily V. POPOVICH, Dirk Engelke, Pietro Elisei (eds.) REAL.CORP 2008, 97-106,
http://programm.corp.at/cdrom2008/files/CORP2008_proceedings.pdf

 

W. Polasek (2009) Hirotogu Akaike, 1927–2009: A personal orbituary, ISBA Bulletin, Dec. 09, 11-13. http://www.bayesian.org/bulletin/0912.pdf

W. Polasek, W. Schwarzbauer, and R. Sellner (2010) Aggregate and regional economic effects of new railway infrastructure, Review of Economic Analysis 1, 73-85.

W. Polasek, C. Llano und R. Sellner (2010) Bayesian methods for completing data in space-time panel models, Review of Economic Analysis 2 (2010) 194–214.

Research Papers and Preprints

W. Polasek (2011) Growth Sales Response Functions (gSRF) for Shrinking Market Shares, mimeo, IHS Wien.

W. Polasek (2011) Multi-level panel models for regional beer sales in Germany, mimeo, IHS Wien.

W. Polasek (2010) Endogeneity and Exogeneity in Sales Response Functions, WP21-10, RCFEA: http://www.rcfea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp21_10.pdf

W. Polasek (2009) Marketing and Regional Sales: Evaluation of Expenditure Strategies by Spatial Sales Response Functions, mimeo, to appear in Proc. of GfKl 2011.

W. Polasek and R. Sellner (2011): Does Globalization affect Regional Growth? Evidence for NUTS-2 Regions in EU-27, IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek (2011): MCMC estimation of extended Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filtering models,  Also: http://ideas.repec.org/p/rim/rimwps/25_11.html.

W. Polasek and R. Sellner (2011): Spatial Chow-Lin models for completing growth rate data in cross-sections, IHS mimeo.

R. Sellner and W. Polasek (2010) Spatial Chow-Lin methods for data completion in econometric flow models, IHS mimeo.

R. Sellner and W. Polasek (2010) Estimation of intra EU-27 NUTS2 trade flows using the spatial Chow-Lin flow model, IHS mimeo.

S. Liu and W. Polasek (2010) Sensitivity analysis of GLS and Spatial AR (SAR) estimators in panel models, IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek (2010) Turning point determination using macro-economic indicators in a hierarchical model, IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek, and G. Pelloni (2010) Bayesian methods for macro-econometric exponential ARCH models, RCEA and IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek, and D. Baier (2010) Sales Response Functions (SRF) with Stochastic Derivative Constraints, RCEA and IHS mimeo.

Polasek W. (2009) Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland, mimeo, IHS-Vienna.

W. Polasek (2009) E-Government security management: How to build up trust by audits, submitted for IRIS 2009.

W. Polasek and R. Sellner (2009) Spatial Chow-Lin methods: Bayesian and ML Forecast comparisons, mimeo IHS.

W. Polasek and D. Baier (2009) Marketing and Regional Sales: Evaluation of Expenditure Strategies by Spatial Sales Response Functions, mimeo, to appear in Proc of GfKl.

Oga T. and W. Polasek (2008) Financial Crises and the Exchange Rate Volatility for Asian Economies, IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek (2008) Orbality: A concept of spatial causality, Mimeo IHS.

W. Polasek, W. Schwarzbauer and R. Sellner (2009) "Human capital diffusion and regional growth in Switzerland“, Mimeo IHS.

W. Polasek, C. Llano und R. Sellner (2008) Bayesian methods for completing data in space-time panel models, IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek (2008) “Completing spatial dependent data: The Chow-Lin method for NUTS data2, IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek, W. Schwarzbauer und R. Sellner (2007) Autoregressive Space-time (ARST) Models or Regional Forecasting, Mimeo IHS.

W. Polasek and W. Schwarzbauer (2007) Traffic Infrastructure and Regional Economic growth. Mimeo, to appear in MODSIM 2007.

W. Polasek, W. Schwarzbauer und R. Sellner (2007) Long-term spatial forecasts for regional systems, mimeo, to appear in MODSIM 2007.

W. Polasek, M. Bliem, W. Hanisch, J. Jaenicke, W. Schwarzbauer, G. Turnheim, K. Weyerstraß  (2006) Der Einfluss der langfristigen Ölpreisentwicklung auf Bedarfsverän­derungen bei der österreichischen Eisenbahn-Infrastruktur, IHS Projektbericht.

W. Polasek and K. Kakamu (2006) Model selection in regional spatial panel models, IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek and K. Kakamu (2006) Cross-sectional space-time modeling using ARNN(p, n) processes, IHS mimeo.

J. P. LeSage and W. Polasek (2006) A local spatial SALE model for regional forecasting in Central Europe, IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek and W. Schwarzbauer (2006) Traffic accessibility and the effect on firms and Austrian population in 99 regions, IHS mimeo.

W. Polasek and W. Schwarzbauer (2007) Traffic accessibility and regional economic growth; mimeo, to appear in MODSIM 2007.

W. Polasek, R. Sellner and W. Schwarzbauer (2007) Long-term regional forecasting with spatial equation systems, mimeo.

W. Polasek; W. Schwarzbauer and R. Sellner (2007) Evaluation von ÖBB Infrastrukturprojekten, mimeo.

W. Polasek (2006b) A high-speed train scenario for central Europe: Some long-term regional growth forecasts, IHS mimeo.

Polasek, W. und Sellner, R. (2005): Ost-West Benchmarking: Die Stellung österreichischer Regionen in Zentraleuropa. Projektbericht 40169, IHS Wien.

M. Schmidt, R. Käufeler and Polasek W. (2005): Wirksamkeit und Sicherheit von Traubensilberkerze (Cimicifuga racemosa, Cimifemin®) bei Menopausebeschwerden,  

Polasek W. H. Berrer (2005c): Regional Classification of Traffic Accessibility in Central Europe, mimeo, IHS Vienna.

Polasek W. H. Berrer (2005d): What drives regional Growth in Central Europe, mimeo, IHS Vienna.

Polasek W. H. Berrer (2005e): Faster InterCity connections in Central Europe: A boost for regional growth? , mimeo, IHS Vienna.

Polasek W. Helmut Berrer (2005): Regional growth and traffic accessibilities in central Europe:

Polasek W. Long-Term Panel Forecasts, mimeo, IHS Vienna.

“Spatial Models for Voting Data in Switzerland”, submitted, Vienna 2004

Polasek W. Helmut Berrer, Christian Helmenstein (2003): The Liberalization of Telecommunication in Austria – Competition in complementary markets, (submitted) IHS working project paper Vienna 2003.

Polasek W. and Aram H. Arakelyan (2003): An econometric approach to demographic transition in Armenia 1994-2001. Preprint, Vienna 2003.

Polasek W. Aram H. Arakelyan, N. Kochinyan (2004): The comparative analysis of social and economic variables of some CIS countries, mimeo 2004.

Polasek W. Factor analysis and outliers: A Bayesian approach. WWZ-Discussion Paper Nr. 9711, University of Basel, 1998.

Polasek W. and Pai, J. (2003): Autoregressive Moving Average Models with t and Hyperbolic Innovations. WWZ-Discussion Paper Nr. 9816, University of Basel and IHS 2003.

Polasek W. and Pelloni, G.: Intersectoral Labour Reallocation and Employment Volatility: A Bayesian Analysis using a VAR-GARCH-M Model, WWZ-Discussion Paper Nr. 9814, University of Basel, Basel, 1998.

Polasek W. and Liu, S.: On generalized inverses and Bayes estimators in MANOVA models, mimeo, University of Basel, 1999.

Polasek W. Forecast evaluations for volatile time series: A generalized Theil decomposition, mimeo, University of Basel, 1999.

Polasek W. and Ren, L.: Linear model selection in the presence of outliers and break points, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Basel, 1999.

Polasek W. Bayesian causality measures for multiple ARCH models using marginal likelihoods, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Basel, 2000.

Polasek W. and Pojarliev, M.: Value at Risk estimation for stock indices using the Basle Committee proposal from 1995, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Basel, 2000

Polasek W. MCMC Methods for Periodic AR-ARCH Models. Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Basel, 2001 (Prepared for the IFAC Como conference).

Polasek W."Theoretical Bayes Statistics", unpublished manuscript, Version 2011,  IHS Wien.

Polasek W. (ed.): The BASEL package for Bayesian time series analysis; PC-Version 2, Institute of Statistics and Econometrics, University of Basel, 2000.